15 Coins Love The Jackpot

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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

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At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives. 

However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026. 

The partnership with Yahoo Finance wraps up as prediction markets push for broader distribution across financial media, sports, and entertainment platforms. For Polymarket, the loss of the Yahoo Finance hub is one distribution channel, but other partnerships remain intact.

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He explained the Brazil opportunity wasn’t explicitly built into Playtech’s medium-term guidance when it was set after its full-year results in March last year.

“At that point, we sort of knew of the opportunity, but it wasn’t specifically factored into the guidance necessarily,” he stated. “But I think when we set the guidance, we saw there are ambitious targets, and there were not necessarily specific contributors in terms of how you’re going to get there other than looking at the overall opportunities across the group.

“Where we’ll revisit the targets at the full-year results, I think that will probably be the logical time to more explicitly factor Brazil into any revised targets we might potentially issue at that point in time. But I think that should only enhance how the business is currently doing and frankly, enhance probably what the current market expectations are for the group in the years ahead.”